Stellaris Off-World · A Trade Study

The Deltas.

We do not build the stellarator. We take a working one as given — the published Stellaris design — and ask a single question: what changes when the same machine is built off Earth instead of on the grid? The answer is a list of deltas, one per part of the plant. Each is a debt the environment charges or a dividend it pays. The first full pass of numbers is now in — including the one where our own expectation was wrong, which we keep on the page on purpose.

Mid-century poster: a warm Martian plain on the left cooling into the dark of deep space on the right, a deuterium atom glowing low at the seam.
Masthead bannerdrop assets/deltas_hero.webprecommended 2000×800 px (wide)
Two environments, one ledger — the warm surface meeting the dark.
Imports
A working Stellaris-class stellarator, taken as given
Baseline
Published design — 12.7 m, 9 T, ~2.7 GW → ~1 GWe
Destinations
Martian surface · lunar surface · deep space — never sunlit orbit
Status
Computed. All six deltas carry verdicts — internal physics passes, June–July 2026. Revised 27 September 2026: the Mars heat verdict moves from mild to moderate, and the Mars plant from about 70,000 to about 80,000 tonnes, after a correction to how much the Martian air cools a radiator.
A · The Headline

Heat & Power Charges

On Earth: ~1 GWe out, with waste heat dumped into water and air the plant never runs out of.

Computed — and we were wrong twice. We expected the Martian surface to pay back; it charges. In July we called the charge mild, crediting the thin Martian air with carrying half of the waste heat; recomputed in September, that air carries about a tenth. At practical radiator temperatures the plant still keeps 83–97% of its Earth output — the steam cycle sets that — but the field of steel radiators roughly doubles, to three to five square kilometres. A mass tax, not a thermodynamic wall, and the field itself is the natural first product of Martian steelmaking. Deep space charges hard: shedding gigawatts by radiation alone forces the radiators hot, which surrenders 400–800 MW of output — and the reference design’s water-cooled blanket, built for Earth, does not travel there at all. One environment taxes you; the other rewrites the machine.

B · Fuel

Fuel Supply Charges

On Earth: the reactor breeds its own tritium from lithium that arrives by truck.

Mars inverts the supply problem. Deuterium is local and abundant; lithium, needed to breed tritium in the blanket, runs around ten parts per million — too thin to feed itself. Computed, the whole axis turns on one number: if the blanket breeds as designed, the plant feeds itself on about half a tonne of imports a year, and a thirty-year lithium stock rides in on a single resupply window. If the breeding margin — seven percent on paper, about the size of the uncertainty in calculating it — falls short, tritium must be imported forever, and tritium decays in the hold on the way. The fuel cycle is not a cost; it is a coin toss the blanket designers hold.

C · Mass

Landed Mass Charges

On Earth: a twelve-metre machine is craned into place at a grid site.

We ran the first honest mass budget: about eighty thousand tonnes landed on Mars, plant and radiators together (seventy thousand before the September correction to the radiator field) — over a thousand landings if every part is shipped. And it cannot be shipped: a single wound superconducting coil is an indivisible three-to-five-hundred-tonne object, several times any lander’s capacity, so the coils must be wound on site or not at all. The wall is bought down not by cheaper rockets and not by shrinking the machine — shrinking makes it worse, because the metre and a half of neutron shielding does not shrink with it — but by building: local steel and local ground displace roughly five kilograms for every one a seed factory costs to land. The quiet surprise in the arithmetic: per landed kilogram, the fusion plant still beats the small fission reactors planned for the same ground.

D · Magnets

Magnets & Cryogenics Pays back

On Earth: superconducting coils are held cold against a warm 300-kelvin ambient.

The one plainly easier thing — and, computed, the one plainly small thing. The cold surroundings do reduce the cost of holding superconducting coils at twenty kelvin, exactly as expected. The saving is a few megawatts against a gigawatt plant: real, favourable, and less than half a percent of output. We predicted the right sign and the wrong size, and we report both. Honesty about a small dividend is worth more than enthusiasm about it.

E · Lifetime

Neutron Damage & Replacement Charges

On Earth: a neutron-damaged wall is swapped from a supply chain.

Fusion neutrons wear out the wall that faces the plasma, and this — not fuel — turns out to be the real recurring bill. Computed over a thirty-year life, replacement steel outweighs the fuel stream a thousand to one: hundreds of tonnes of blanket and wall riding every resupply window, staged one window ahead, forever. On Mars, local steelmaking can cut the stream several-fold — if reactor-grade steel can be made there at all, which no one has shown. In deep space there is no such relief: the plant must fly with its own lifetime of spares, at a multiple of its own mass. Lifetime stops being a maintenance schedule and becomes the design constraint.

F · Autonomy

Running It Alone Pays back

On Earth: operators stand in the loop, seconds from the machine.

This is why a stellarator, of all fusion machines. With no large plasma current it cannot suffer the sudden disruptions that plague the tokamak, and a fusion plant cannot run away — at worst, it turns itself off. A machine that fails safe and runs steady is the only kind you can trust to operate alone, minutes of light-lag from the nearest human. Off-world does not merely tolerate autonomy; it demands it — and this is the machine built for it.

The Ledger So Far

Where Each Delta Falls

DeltaMartian surfaceLunar surfaceDeep space
A · Heat & powerChargesmoderate — buyable (corrected Sept.)Chargesmoderate — shade itChargeshard — rewrites the machine
B · Fuel supplyChargesmild if breeding holdsChargessoftest — a three-day tetherChargesfatal if it doesn’t
C · Landed massChargessevere — bought by buildingChargessevere — built even cheaperChargesthe wall
D · Magnets / cryoPays backbarelyPays backbarelyPays backbarely
E · ReplacementChargesthe real billChargesthe tether pays hereChargesspares fly along
F · AutonomyPays backdecisivePays backweak — Earth can drive from herePays backdecisive
“Off-world fusion is not a scaled-down Earth plant. It is a different optimum.” The environment pays you back in cooling headroom, cryogenics, and the autonomy fit — and charges you in fuel-breeding, landed mass, and irreplaceability. The best machine is the one that wins that trade. No grid program will ever build it.
Why We Publish the Question

We Published the Question. Here Is the Answer.

Before computing a single cell, we wrote down what we expected and sealed it. Then we computed. The seals came back imperfect on purpose: we guessed Mars would pay back on heat and it charges; we guessed the cryogenic dividend mattered and it barely does. The cells we called charges, charge — some worse than we said. A research house that only reports the guesses it got right is a marketing department.

What the computed table says, in one line: on Mars the environment charges a price that local industry can pay — steel radiators, wound coils, replacement walls, all things a surface economy makes; in deep space it charges a price that must be flown in whole, and the Earth design does not survive the trip. The Moon, added in July 2026, computes as a third regime entirely — the Earth-tethered surface plant: on heat it now matches Mars, because the September correction removed the convective head start we had given Mars, and its three-day supply line forgives what the other two cannot. It is also where our strongest card, autonomy, honestly does not play — Earth can drive a machine on the Moon, and we say so. Prove the plant on the Moon; justify the thesis on Mars. Off-world fusion is not a scaled-down Earth plant. It is a different machine, and the table above is its first specification.

A standing premise of this study: no magnetic-confinement device has yet demonstrated net energy gain. “A working Stellaris-class plant” is therefore a premise we import, not a result we claim — we analyse the day after fusion works, on purpose, and say so. Verdicts shown here are computed order-of-magnitude systems analyses, internal physics passes June–July 2026, awaiting external review; figures are drawn from the published Stellaris design point (Lion et al. 2025). Two figures on this page, sourced: lithium in Martian soil runs below 15 ppm in Curiosity’s ChemCam measurements at Gale crater (Ollila et al. 2014 and Payré et al. 2017, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets); we use 10 ppm. The seventy-thousand-tonne plant is itemised, component by component, in Table 7a of FUNNY-TM-2026-001.